Dr Christina Schori Liang, Head of Counterterrorism and Preventing Violent Extremism at the GCSP, contributed to the Global Terrorism Index 2025 report on "Ten Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War "

The Ukrainian military has gained respect for holding out against its numerically and technologically superior enemy through innovative tactics and technology. These adaptations, often finding cheaper and asymmetrical solutions to countering a stronger adversary, have also provided potential blueprints for terrorists to adopt. This analysis aims to focus on the twenty-first-century war tactics being employed in the Russia-Ukraine war to gain fresh insights into what types of strategies terrorists will employ and how countries will need to counter them. 

Wars are not merely battles of weapons and resolve; they are testing grounds for the future and unique laboratories for technological and strategic advancements. The Russia-Ukraine war has been depicted as the first commercial space war, the first full-scale drone war, the first 3D printing war and the first Artificial Intelligence (AI) war. At the same time, the war is stealthily ushering in a new age of Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWS) that are reinventing air, land and naval warfare. 

War tactics and strategies are open source. With round-the-clock international news and social media coverage, terrorists worldwide can monitor the unfolding war in real time by accessing encrypted messaging apps, social media platforms, image boards, video-sharing platforms, and the dark web. 

Both sides in the conflict have integrated drones into every aspect of fighting, from precision fire and strike coordination to intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR) and psychological operations. Kyiv has earned the nickname “Mil-Tech Valley”, making Ukraine arguably a leader in military robotics. Drones have become the eyes of the battlefield.¹ A special reconnaissance drone team called “ochi” effectively give eyes to their artillery helping them to identify targets. The drones are linked to Starlink satellites of the American company SpaceX which supplies high-speed internet connection so everything the drone sees can be streamed to nearby brigades. 

Drones have become the definitive weapons fielded in the Russia-Ukraine war. Large surveillance drones patrol high above while smaller drones (first-person view drones or FPVs), including the small Mavic quadcopter, are used for surveillance and to drop small munitions (grenades, mortar shells, bottles of petrol). The Ukrainian MOD bought these in bulk – 8,200 DJI drones for only $3,650 each.² Already in 2023, Ukrainian high-school students built drones by welding Chinese-supplied components on to carbon-fibre frames costing $350 a piece, they were later strapped with 2-3 pound explosives in order immobilize armored vehicles and kill artillery brigade operators. The war also introduced the large Drone Hunter F700, a six-rotor drone equipped with radar-supported autonomous technology that can launch webs to capture smaller enemy drones. 

Drones allow combatants to conduct operations remotely, reducing their exposure to direct combat risks. Drones are extremely economical. Recent advancements in commercially available drones have equipped them with high-level sensors, user-friendly controls, and first-person view capabilities at a lower cost than military-grade systems. These drones, while less durable and less protected than their military grade counterparts, allow forces to absorb losses more easily. 

Drones are challenging Western dominance in battlefield economics. The cost implications are substantial if a $500 drone can take out a tank, or if neutralizing a $25,000 drone requires a $250,000 missile. This can impact the balance of power and has heralded greater asymmetry in war.³ 

Ukraine launched an ambitious “Million Drone Army” program to leverage the power of unmanned aerial vehicles and AI-enabled drones. The programme has significantly bolstered its military capabilities against Russian forces. By 2024, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry had supplied approximately 1.2 million unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to its army, encompassing reconnaissance UAVs, strike drones, and FPV kamikaze systems.⁴ 

This large-scale deployment has enabled Ukraine to conduct deep strikes on Russian logistics hubs, ammunition warehouses, and other strategic targets, thereby alleviating pressure on Ukrainian frontlines.⁵ The program's success is further underscored by the establishment of the Unmanned Systems Forces in June 2024, aiming to field 10,000 drone specialists by the end of 2025.6 Financially, Ukraine has committed substantial resources to this endeavor, allocating $60 million monthly for new drones to support combat units.⁷ 

In December 2024, Ukraine deployed an all-robot assault on a Russian position for the first time. It utilized dozens of remote-controlled vehicles mounted with machine guns and unmanned kamikaze drones, indicating Ukraine's growing reliance on technology to mitigate its manpower shortages. 

The Ukrainian military has begun integrating cutting-edge advancements by deploying vehicles with robotic machine guns, mine layers and electronic warfare systems. This involves modifying drone bodies by replacing traditional radio-electronic components with fiber-optic systems, significantly improving control over long distances. Fiber-optic drones are immune to terrain related signal degradation and operate at low altitudes (20 to 50 meters), making them harder to detect. Additionally, they evade electronic reconnaissance by emitting no radio signals, enhancing Ukraine’s stealth and operational effectiveness on the battlefield. 

Russia is responding in kind with its new Shahed-136 suicide drones that use GPS technology to navigate. Packed with 4G data modems and Ukrainian SIM cards, they can travel using Ukrainian cell-phone towers and Chinese satellite navigation antennas, helping them to dodge Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) defenses. Russia hopes to launch autonomous drone salvos in the future. 

More recently, AI has been introduced to boost such weapons. AI can process massive data and leveraging algorithms to identify and prioritize potential targets. Drones are equipped with various sensors, including high-resolution cameras, infrared sensors, radar, and LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging). AI systems are being trained to recognize objects (vehicles, buildings, or people) with deep learning models to get a comprehensive view of the environment in real-time to deliver munitions with high precision. 

Many remote-controlled machines produced by Ukraine, ranging from long-range aircraft and attack boats to inexpensive FPV kamikaze drones, are early versions of weapons that can eventually operate autonomously with AI. Depending on the level of autonomy programmed into the drone, the AI can either autonomously decide to strike or assist human operators by suggesting targets. Autonomous systems operate within predefined rules of engagement, while human operators typically make the final decision. In most cases humans are asked to confirm selected targets and information is sent to Ukrainian battle management systems. This has enabled the time of detection of a target to its destruction to be reduced to approximately 30 seconds. Sometimes AI can operate with a high degree of autonomy, making split-second decisions based on complex data analysis. While highly effective in modern warfare, it raises significant ethical and legal concerns. 
 

Drone Swarms 

The Ukraine conflict has underscored the advantages of deploying multiple drones simultaneously for operational advantage. Napoleon Bonapart employed the tactic of deploying his forces at multiple points of enemy weakness, allowing him to defeat armies larger than his own. He attacked the enemy as a cohesive system and created synergetic effects. 

Transitioning to a theory of warfare for swarm weapons, going beyond just mass, a swarm of drones can exploit this same principle of maneuver to attack the enemy system at hundreds of dispersed weak points simultaneously. The effectiveness of swarming tactics relies on the drones' ability to communicate, coordinate, and act cohesively. Employed as a system to attack a system, militaries can multiply the effects a swarm weapon by exploiting synergetic effects to gain a larger operational advantage. 

Over the past year Ukraine has been deploying swarms of 3 to 10 drones.⁸ In December 2024, the Ukrainian national guard brigade orchestrated an all-robot combined-arms operation, mixing crawling and flying drones for an assault on Russian positions in Kharkiv Oblast in northern Ukraine. The Ukrainian operation involved remote-controlled flying surveillance and minelaying drones, one-way explosive robots on the ground and in the air as well as gun-armed ground robots. ⁹ 

Crowdsourcing Corporates and Volunteer Civilian Forces 

The Russia-Ukraine war has also been depicted as the first commercial space war. Corporates are using Ukraine as a hotbed to testbed their military technology and latest AI tech. SpaceX has helped ensure Ukraine’s access to high-speed internet providing the backbone of Ukraine’s military communications, and, according to Mykhailo Federov,¹⁰ “the blood of our entire communications infrastructure.”¹¹ 

Ukrainian intelligence analysts use Palantir's MetaConstellation tool to quickly access commercial satellite data through AI-assisted searches, providing crucial information when and where it’s needed. It utilizes Palantir's AI software to analyze open-source data, satellite imagery, and drone footage, creating reports from the ground that present military options to commanders.¹² 

Ukrainian forces have also reinforced their daily intelligence work with the help of civilians with cyber expertise who report Russian movements creating an extensive network. Deep State Map, initiated by Ukrainian volunteers provides real-time updates on front-line changes, military unit locations, and liberated territories. A crucial resource for both citizens and military personnel, it demonstrates the power of opensource intelligence. An IT army of international and Ukrainian volunteer hackers also work with the defense ministry to conduct offensive cyberwarfare operations that target Russian infrastructure and websites. The IT army is organized through a Telegram channel where new Russian targets are listed for volunteers to attack. 

Supported by the Ukrainian government, drones are crowd-sourced worldwide through a UNITED24 platform "Army of Drones" initiative that focuses on fundraising for the procurement, delivery, and maintenance of professional drones for aerial reconnaissance and training pilots. 

New technology is openly sourced. Ukrainian entrepreneurs, engineers and military units are using code found online and components from hobbyist computers like Raspberry Pi that can be purchased from hardware stores or Best Buy. 

Naval Drones to Attack Ships 

Ukraine's use of unmanned surface vehicles (USV) has given the world a genuine view of what large-scale future naval warfare might look like and how naval drones can impact naval security. Autonomous drones present a significant threat to naval fleets. Ukraine has demonstrated this by repelling large-scale Russian mechanized attacks and crippling Russia's Black Sea Fleet. It will be more challenging to defend port infrastructure and ships in harbour – the targets are obvious and a weaker power without a navy can pose a serious asymmetric threat. 

Ukraine has used remote-controlled boat drones packed with explosive to attack Russia’s fleet located off the coast of Sevastopol. According to unofficial reports, an amphibious Russian landing ship, the $70 million Ivanovets, sank after it was targeted with sea drones, each carrying approximately 300 kilograms of explosives.¹³ According to multiple news agencies, at least 20 medium to large Russian naval vessels have been sunk in the Black Sea.¹⁴ (Carey, Kostenko and Pennington, 2024). 

According to Chinese analysts, USVs have five advantages in combat: effective concealment, low cost to manufacture and use, strong destructive ability, intelligent modes of control, and potential to operate autonomously with diversified attack modes. USVs have greater explosive power than air strikes and can “harness wolf group tactics” for greater destructive power.¹⁵ 

In January 2025, NATO launched its new mission “Baltic Sentry”, which provides enhanced surveillance in the Baltic Sea against acts of sabotage, where at least 11 undersea cables have been damaged since October 2023.¹⁶ More than 95% of internet traffic is carried via undersea cables, with some 1.3 million kilometers of such cabling securing an estimated $10 trillion dollars of international trade daily.¹⁷ The success of USVs on the Baltic Sea Fleet and the most recent acts of sabotage of sea cables might inspire new terrorist tactics. Houthi rebels have proven capability of hijacking ships in the Red Sea.¹⁸ Ukraine has proven that a nation without a navy can pose a serious asymmetric threat and Russia has revealed the vulnerability of undersea cables. 

Printing War Tools 

Ukraine is the new laboratory for 3D printing aided by multiple states, companies and organizations. Tech Against Tanks connects 3D printing support efforts, producing items such as window barricades, tourniquets, and diversionary mines. Ukraine receives essential lifesaving gadgets at cost from WildBees Poland, which is part of a global network of 20 countries with “BeeHives” that produce items using 3D printers. The US donated Warp SPEE3D metal 3D printers that allow engineers to quickly manufacture metal parts needed for repairing damaged machines in real-time in combat zones.

Since Ukraine is greatly underequipped compared to Russian military forces and armor, 3D printing is an important strategic enabler allowing Ukraine to print crucial munitions including artillery shells. Grenades, once obsolete, are now being dropped directly onto targets, equipped with 3D-printed stabilizing fins for accuracy.

3D printing can also create futuristic new weapons: gun turrets with autonomous targeting that can reach targets up to 1,000 meters away with A.I.-trained software, guns that can shoot targets using a video game controller as well as bombs strapped to racing drones with night vision that hunt in the dark. 

PSYOPS 

Ukrainians have employed psychological operations (PSYOPs) effectively in the ongoing conflict with Russia to influence enemy forces, they bolster domestic morale, and sway international opinion. Ukrainians use social media, and propaganda to highlight Russian military failures, high casualty rates, and logistical problems. Messages are crafted to sow doubt among Russian troops about their mission and leadership. 

Ukraine launched surrender campaigns encouraging Russian soldiers to surrender safely. Ukrainian media and social media platforms mock Russian military leaders with memes, videos, and viral posts to amplify their narratives. Heartwarming or tragic stories of civilians resisting occupation are widely shared to garner international sympathy and keep global attention on the conflict to help galvanize international support for sanctions and military aid. Figures like the "Ghost of Kyiv" (a supposed ace fighter pilot) or the defiant defenders of Snake Island became symbols of resistance. Ukraine has also used misinformation and disinformation to mislead Russian forces about the timing and location of offensives, such as the Kherson and Kharkiv counteroffensives in 2022. 

While Ukrainian PSYOPs have been highly innovative, they face challenges. Russia also conducts extensive propaganda and censorship to suppress Ukrainian narratives and saturate the information space making the global information space so crowded that it is difficult to sustain attention on Ukrainian messages. Nonetheless, Ukraine’s PSYOPs have been widely regarded as a critical element of its asymmetric strategy, complementing military operations and securing crucial international support. 

The Ukraine conflict continues to be marked by rapid tactical and technological developments on both sides These same tactics can also be used to by violent non-state actors to pursue asymmetrical warfare. What potential lessons can terrorists learn from this conflict and how can we prepare to counter them? 

Lesson One: Software is Transforming Modern Warfare.

Today’s modern soldier is deeply embedded in a web of software that supports logistics, intelligence, communications, and weapon guidance. Starlink ensures Ukraine maintains internet connectivity, allowing troops to remotely control drones and stream encrypted video for intelligence purposes. The Ukrainian military’s Delta System consolidates data from various sources, such as drones, satellite imagery, and intelligence from partner countries to enhance situational awareness and battlefield management. Additionally, Estonian company SensusQ has created an AI-powered "Crystal Ball" system that can predict potential attacks ahead of time.

Cyberwarfare allows combatants to hack into enemy networks to disable critical infrastructure, disrupt communication, and gather intelligence. These can paralyze military operations without a single shot being fired. 

Terrorists can exploit software in various ways, including reverse-engineering open-source military programs to study tactics and defenses. Additionally, leaked battlefield applications, drone control software, and AI targeting systems can be repurposed. 

Lesson Two: Drones and UAWs are Reinventing Military Opus Operandi 

Drones have significantly impacted how wars will be fought in the future. We are already witnessing the emergence of advanced "deep-strike" drones, such as Iranian Shahed drones used by Russia and long-range drones developed by Ukrainian startups. In large numbers, these drones can surpass even sophisticated air defenses. Unlike traditional large standing armies, reserve drones require minimal space, no sustenance, and no salaries. Drones are also becoming easy to acquire and if needed, upgraded, repurposed and if broken, rebuilt. 

Drones are not a new phenomenon for terrorists; a variety of non-state actors, including the Taliban, Boko Haram, Houthi rebels, and ISIL have utilized drones in combat. Drone innovations by the Houthis have shown that drone attacks can be highly precise and effective at long distances. A Houthi drone was able to fly for some 16 hours from Yemen over a distance of more than 2,600 kilometers to strike Tel Aviv in July 2024. 

What is new in this war is that drones are being deployed with AI capabilities; innovation has transformed even cheap drones into effective guided missiles, both human-operated and AI-guided. 

AI will further enhance the effectiveness of drones and autonomous weapons for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, targeting, and kamikaze missions. AI has been instrumental in analyzing satellite imagery, identifying troop movements, and predicting enemy actions. 

In the future, low-cost drones will be even more effective in swarms designed to overwhelm enemy defences. 

Lesson Three: ‘Do-it-Yourself’ Weapons 

The war has introduced the concept of ‘do-it-yourself’ weapons. The widespread availability of easily designed software, off-the-shelf devices and 3D printing has accelerated the ability for innovative minds to build their own weapons. 3D printing means non-state actors can print whatever they need, wherever they need it. The widespread availability of off-the-shelf devices, user-friendly software, specialized AI microchips, and powerful automation algorithms are now within reach of anyone with a few thousand dollars and some technical skills. 

People around the world now have access to the tools necessary to create lethal robots. Although these systems may not match the sophistication of military-grade technologies from major powers the concern lies in the potential for these less expensive systems to be designed and developed by terrorists globally with little effort. 

Lesson Four: PSYOPs and Cognitive Warfare are a Powerful Weapon 

The war has featured significant cyberattacks and information campaigns. Some of the lessons that were learned is that social media and disinformation campaigns can shape public opinion and destabilize societies not only among the war combatants but across the globe. 

Deepfakes and propaganda can influence public perception and sow discord. PSYOPs can also be used to mislead the timing and location of offensives and thus lead to significant operational successes. PSYOPs can be widely used as a critical element of asymmetric strategy. 

Lesson Five: Non-State Actors Worldwide are Sharing Expertise 

Drones are increasingly used by non-state actors around the world, with videos of drone attacks and group chats facilitating knowledge sharing. According to the Centre for Information Resilience, fighters in Myanmar have documented 1,400 online videos of drone flights from October 2021 to June 2023. Drone operators are turning to chat apps like Discord and Telegram to access 3D printing blueprints for fixed-wing drones, get information on tactics and tips on pilot training and learn how to bypass default software on commercial drones to conceal their locations.¹⁹ 

Lesson Six: David and Goliath- New Asymmetry in Wars 

Wars are no longer solely determined by the number of jets, ships, or tanks a country can deploy. Instead, the focus will shift to those who are equipped to defend against the new and less expensive surge of new dual-use weapons ranging from smartphones to drones. 

Terrorists will never achieve the air superiority of a state, given that most nations possess advanced defense systems like Patriot anti-air and anti-missile systems, and MIG aircraft. However, terrorists can still access MANPADS and drones, as seen in the past. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the significant advantages these drones offer for ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance). 

Especially cheap drones have shifted the dynamics for terrorists. The conflict has highlighted the importance of open-source technology, unmanned systems, and AI. The spread of these technologies among nonstate actors introduces a new asymmetry in warfare. This pattern has been evident in past conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, where IEDs emerged as a highly lethal, low-cost threat to military personnel. This new AI, 3D, drone and robotic war is heralding in greater asymmetry in war. Success will now depend on “innovation power,” the capacity to invent, adapt, and deploy new technologies more swiftly than adversaries. 

Lesson Seven: Companies are Expanding AI 

Technology is transforming the nature of warfare. The shift toward increasingly autonomous weapons systems has been developing over decades. 

The growing demand for combat tools that integrate human and machine intelligence has led to substantial investments in companies and government agencies that promise to enhance the efficiency, costeffectiveness, and speed of warfare. This demand for advanced AI and autonomy has been a boon for tech and defense companies, resulting in large contracts for developing a range of weaponry, including lethal autonomous drones, unmanned fighter jets, and underwater vehicles. These companies will have a difficult time to keep the technologies under wraps. As DeepSeek has recently revealed, AI companies are openly sharing their expertise to the global community allowing anyone to further develop their technologies. AI has further democratized access to dual-use technological innovations. 

Lesson Eight The Oppenheimer Moment: The AI Military Race 

The rise of AI-enabled warfare and autonomous weapons systems is being likened to the "Oppenheimer moment," drawing parallels to the creation of the atomic bomb. This comparison represents a pivotal point that could either mark the beginning of a new era of great power dominance or serve as a warning of potential catastrophic consequences. As investment in AI rapidly increases, experts caution that these technologies could profoundly change society's relationship with war and technology, potentially leading to greater reliance on machines for critical decision-making. The prospect of autonomous weapons raises fears of a dystopian future reminiscent of apocalyptic fiction. The substantial investments being made in autonomous weapons and AI targeting systems are increasing global threats. At the same time, AI may be the saving grace of humanity, making people smarter and more resilient. 

Lesson Nine: The Importance of Regulation of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) 

Drone swarms are the perfect weapon for asymmetrical wars and Generative AI will have an enormous impact on global security generating new weapons and modus operandi to malicious actors worldwide. The heightened focus on LAWS and AI over the past year has given regulation advocates some optimism that political pressure for international treaties might increase. Despite differing global visions on governance, both the U.S. and China share a concern about preventing terrorists from acquiring autonomous weapons. 

Lesson Ten: The World is Becoming Increasingly Transparent.

 The world is becoming more transparent due to advancements in technology. Satellite imagery is able to document mass atrocities and ethnic cleansing. Nanosatellites track vessels engaged in illegal fishing through their identification systems. Amateur sleuths can assist Europol in investigating child sexual exploitation. As the world becomes more transparent, terrorists and insurgents will have fewer places to hide both in the real and virtual worlds. 

Conclusion 

Marc Andreessen's famous declaration that "software is eating the world" has never been more relevant, especially in the context of modern warfare. ²⁰ Software is increasingly central to shaping military strategies and determining the outcomes of conflicts. As defense systems are challenged and data is becoming the new oil, the power of intelligence and information, traditionally controlled by global superpowers and large corporations, may eventually be harnessed by weaker, less-resourced groups like insurgents and terrorists. While the titans still hold the keys to the castle, terrorists are constantly finding new ways to breach the moat.