The United Nations (UN) Secretary-General recently observed that “We have war reporters, but there are no peace reporters”.¹ Building and sustaining peace is a long-term endeavour and does not create the headlines that war does. However, it is not only the attention of the media, but also that of governments, regional and international organisations, and others that have difficulty focusing on the long-term efforts required to build and sustain peace, and instead focus on short-term crises associated with conflict. This perpetuates a cycle whereby the issues that are growing in importance are not tackled early enough and become the crisis of the day. How can this cycle be broken? The concept of sustaining peace provides one answer.²

This concept, as the UN proposed in 2016, emphasises “a comprehensive approach to sustaining peace, particularly through the prevention of conflict and addressing its root causes”.³ It recognises that the stages or phases of any conflict are not clearly defined categories, and therefore attempts to break down barriers between artificially defined phases. It also includes explicit direction for approaches that are integrated across all sectors, and emphasises early action based firstly on the input of a wide group of stakeholders from across the society of a conflict-affected country and secondly on strong local, regional and international partnerships.⁴ The implementation of the sustaining peace concept is ongoing.⁵

Another component of the answer to the question of how to break the cycle referred to above comes from strategic foresight. Strategic foresight is the “structured and explicit exploration of multiple futures in order to inform decision-making”.6 It thus includes both a strategic thinking dimension, but also one of action and agency. Strategic foresight has a long history of increasing application in the public and private sectors across a variety of topics.⁷ While rapid technological change and the growing impact of climate change were increasing the prominence and value of strategic foresight approaches prior to 2020, more recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have led to an increasing interest in this approach, including in the peace and security domain.

How strategic foresight can support efforts to build lasting peace received strong support from the UN Secretary-General in his report entitled Our Common Agenda, when he recommended that the New Agenda for Peace (which is due to be published in the form of a UN Secretary-General Policy Brief in June 2023) focuses in part on “Strengthening international foresight and capacities to identify and adapt to new peace and security risks”.⁸ Initiatives by Mexico in November 2021 and Japan in January 2023 in the UN Security Council (UNSC) under their respective presidencies of that body have provided opportunities for debate on themes related to sustaining peace.⁹

A further debate scheduled by Switzerland during its UNSC presidency in May 2023 will renew attention on the issue in the lead-up to the Summit of the Future in 2024 and at a strategic time before the New Agenda for Peace is due. At least one permanent member of the UNSC, the United Kingdom (UK), explicitly encouraged the UN to strengthen its “foresight capabilities to anticipate risks and inform our responses” in the context of the prevention of conflict and the implementation of nationally owned peacebuilding processes during the 26 January 2023 UNSC debate.¹⁰

An important backdrop to these recent efforts is the overarching commitment made in the preamble of the UN Charter “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war”,11 and renewed emphasis on what today’s policymakers owe future generations.¹² This is an issue that Switzerland reminded the UNSC of in the 26 January 2023 debate, stating “the New Agenda for Peace must serve as leverage for building sustainable peace. In these dark times, we owe it to all generations, everywhere in the world, to join our efforts and seize this opportunity”.¹³

This Policy Brief will address the gaps that exist in the steps we need to take today to build long-term sustainable peace. At its heart it will be a discussion of the instruments that link insights on how the future may evolve with decision-making around building peaceful societies. It will be argued that these foresight instruments need to be both routine and agile, and that they should be embedded in institutions involved in building sustainable peace.